Goldman Sachs Trims Q2 Oil Forecast To $90 But Warns Of $115 Surge If Truce Collapses

Goldman Sachs trimmed its second‑quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and U.S. crude to $90 and $87 a barrel, respectively, ​late on Wednesday, after the U.S. and Iran agreed on ‌a two-week ceasefire.

Previously, the bank forecast Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to average $99 and $91 a barrel, respectively.

"Given the reduction in the risk premium at the ​front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through ​the SoH (Strait of Hormuz), we nudge down our Q2 forecast ⁠for Brent/WTI," the bank said in a note.

Brent crude oil prices ​are down over 11% so far this week amid hopes that the ​Strait of Hormuz would reopen after U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.

However, prices rose on Thursday on concerns that supply from the key Middle East ​producing region may not fully resume amid doubts about the ceasefire holding ​and as the crucial strait remains restricted.

Goldman kept its third-quarter forecast unchanged at $82 for ‌Brent ⁠and $77 for WTI, and for the fourth quarter at $80 for Brent and $75 for WTI.

The bank said risks to its price forecasts remain skewed to the upside, reflecting the potential for longer‑lasting disruptions and more persistent crude ​production losses.

In a ​severe case where ⁠the ceasefire doesn't hold and with persistent Middle East production losses of around 2 million barrels per day, ​Brent could average closer to $115 in the fourth quarter, ​the bank ⁠said.

Goldman also lowered its second-quarter European benchmark TTF gas price forecast to 50 euros per megawatt-hour (EUR/MWh) from 70 EUR/MWh, on the assumption of gradual normalisation ⁠of ​LNG flows through Hormuz from mid-April.

However, if ​LNG flows are significantly delayed or production infrastructure is damaged, prices will likely go above 75 ​EUR/MWh, Goldman added.

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